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As I look at the results from Monday night’s Alberta referendum, with about 75% of Albertans voting for option one, to stay in Canada, and about 25% of Albertans voting for option two, to have a referendum on Alberta independence at some point, it is obvious that this result is more than what it first appears to be. It is not a repudiation of Alberta independence, not a clarion call to follow Prime Minister Mark Carney and not a celebration of the status quo. It is a referendum fraught with irony and subtext.
There are three lessons and consequences of this referendum and these will be discussed below.
But before revealing the ramifications of the vote, it is necessary again to emphasize that this referendum had absolutely nothing to do with the breakup of Canada. This was not a referendum on independence, not a referendum on separation, not a referendum on Alberta leaving Canada. It was merely a referendum on a referendum. That’s something we said from the very beginning and it remains true now. This was not a referendum that was going to have immediate consequences for Albertans. It was an opportunity to send a message to Ottawa, but more than that, it was an opportunity for Alberta and Albertans to send a message to exercise their leverage against the Mark Carney government. With Albertans voting for option one, this was a lost opportunity. Alberta has lost the leverage it might have had in pushing back against Mark Carney because the only language he understands is one in which Alberta threatens to separate at some point in the future.
Imagine for a minute Quebec having a similar type of referendum: at least 80% of Quebecers would be voting in favor of having the right to have a future referendum. And Carney would not be popping up in Montreal to declare that the sky is falling. Absolutely not.
Most Albertans obviously did not get this. The fence sitters, the soft federalists, the soft independence people never seemed to comprehend that they had nothing to lose in this referendum. Nothing at all. There were no grave consequences economically, or socially. But there was an abundance of potential opportunity.
There would not have any massive economic dislocation in Alberta if option 2 had triumphed It was all fearmongering from the usual suspects, the federalists like Mark Carney, Conservative Party of Canada leader Peter Poilievre Alberta Premier Daniel Smith, and former Prime Minister Stephen Harper — all brazen fearmongering to try to instill dread into the hearts of Albertans. But the irony of this vote could well be the end of Canada and the beginning of a real, and bona fide, and and strong separatist movement in Alberta.
That is perhaps the greatest lesson from Monday night: far from defeating the independence movement, this referendum might, ironically, have bolstered it, strengthened it, redefined it, enlivened it. Just when its detractors thought this would be its death knell.
Because Albertans threw away their chance to exercise leverage, Mark Carney will exploit this moment in time. He will exploit his opportunity to further harness Alberta’s economic might. He will be almost unstoppable now because Alberta did not stand up for its provincial rights when it had the duty and obligation to do so. Carney will read that as a offer, as an opportunity to make Alberta even more of a vassal of Ottawa than it ever has been. That will make more Albertans realize what was really at stake in this referendum, and have some buyer’s remorse, but also fight for another opportunity to vote for independence.
So independence is not dead with this vote. In fact, it will be stimulated more than ever. Maybe not today. Maybe not tomorrow. But soon. And in a very powerful, visceral way, it will be augmented, not diminished. That is the irony of this vote. Instead of ending the question of Alberta independence, instead of making Canada forever in charge of Alberta, it will ultimately make the independence movement more powerful as an increasing number of Albertans realize they have again been duped by the magical attraction of the status quo.
The second irony concerns the political future of Premier Daniel Smith. This was a huge electoral triumph the for Smith, who has twisted herself into a pretzel over the years trying to be both a staunch federalist and an independence sympathizer. She invested a lot of time, energy and political capital in federalism, in promoting option one, in standing side by side with Mark Carney in trumpeting and promoting the federalist cause, and she won Monday night, and I’m sure a lot of Albertans voted with her on this issue. She often appeared as either an unwilling hostage or perhaps a victim of Stockholm Syndrome. But she is best remembered as Carney’s nodding mascot as she waged a war of words in unison with the prime minister against option 2 and heaped encomia on his already inflated head.
The irony: this could be her last political hurrah, at least as an Alberta political figure and as premier of that province. This is it. She has spent all of her political capital, and this is the last time she will celebrate a political victory in Alberta. She has danced around the parameters of ideology in Alberta for the past two decades, a leader of the very conservative Wildrose Party one week and a refugee in the old Red Tory Progressive Conservative Party the next. A fierce Alberta nationalist one year and an ardent supporter of Carneyda the next. Mark my words, she will soon be forced out as leader of the United Conservative Party, and hence as Premier of Alberta; the storm clouds are growing, have been growing against her for quite some time, and these agents of political justice will be fully unleashed as constituency associations across Alberta demand her removal as party leader and as premier.
The third lesson is in the other nine questions in this referendum. With the exception of one, Albertans overwhelmingly supported the autonomous side on every issue-that Alberta should be autonomous and make its own decisions, legislate its own laws, decide its own immigration and not relay on Ottawa to do any of these things for it. The lesson was clear: Alberta should not be limited by a federal government that does work for Alberta’s interest. So Albertans are clearly in favor of autonomy, but they still seem to believe, or a majority of them anyway are still seduced by the notion, that Alberta can have autonomy within the status quo Canada, within the current formula of Confederation.
The second irony concerns the political future of Premier Daniel Smith. This was a huge electoral triumph the for Smith, who has twisted herself into a pretzel over the years trying to be both a staunch federalist and an independence sympathizer … The irony: this could be her last political hurrah, at least as an Alberta political figure and as premier of that province.
Clearly, that’s not going to happen. It hasn’t happened. It will not happen. It won’t happen under a Mark Carney government. It won’t happen under a Conservative government. Pierre Poilievre is as dedicated to the hated equalization tax as Mark Carney. He has said that he will continue the policy because he wants votes in Ontario and Quebec. So what this referendum will lead to is a realization amongst those Albertans who believe in autonomy, that they cannot have that autonomy without independence, or at least a radically redefined federalism that allows Alberta to act as an independent country.
Watch for this major political shift on the Alberta landscape : there will be a fusion of Albertans supporting autonomy with Albertans supporting independence, and they will become one force, one supermajority in Alberta because they will realize that they cannot have autonomy without independence or without a renewed, completely transformed confederation. The status quo cannot survive.
You cannot have autonomy without a new Canada or a new Alberta outside of Canada. You cannot have your wish. You cannot have your cake and eat it too. You have to have autonomy with some degree of independence and this revelation will cause a new and bigger independence movement in Alberta, as these two factions speak with one voice. One has been stubbornly federalist, the other obviously separatist — but these factions will come together as a result of this referendum, when it becomes clear that none of these other questions will be answered, none of these other objectives will be realized under the status quo.
That is perhaps the greatest lesson from Monday night: far from defeating the independence movement, this referendum might, ironically, have bolstered it, strengthened it, redefined it, enlivened it. Just when its detractors thought this would be its death knell. This entire referendum is not just fraught with, but defined by irony. It has not turned out the way anybody really thought it would turn out. But if the federalists think they’ve won, all they did was win one referendum. Unfortunately for them, that referendum will lead to at least one more, and will be the cause, be the stimulation for the further growth of the independence movement in Alberta.
Wait for it.
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I hope you are right but sorry, I think you are dreaming. Every single conservative politician always turns left when the going gets tough, because they have to pander to the woke types. And their desire for personal advancement trumps their faux conservatism. The only one who does not is Maxime and his influence unfortunately is minimal.
I'm done with all the DeceptiCon parties, Provincial and Federal. Tired of the lying and blatant corruption. I'm in BC and am fortunate to have a BC One candidate.
I hope you are right but sorry, I think you are dreaming. Every single conservative politician always turns left when the going gets tough, because they have to pander to the woke types. And their desire for personal advancement trumps their faux conservatism. The only one who does not is Maxime and his influence unfortunately is minimal.
I'm done with all the DeceptiCon parties, Provincial and Federal. Tired of the lying and blatant corruption. I'm in BC and am fortunate to have a BC One candidate.