There's Nowhere to Escape for Justin Trudeau
Whether it's a fall election or prorogation, the doors are closing in on the prime minister
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has reached a personal and professional impasse. You can see by the picture above how his own desperate pleas for help are going unanswered by Liberal MPs and even cabinet ministers. That’s Minister of National Revenue Marie-Claude Bibeau in the picture above, grimacing as Trudeau speaks more nonsense.
The options available for Justin Trudeau right now are very limited and the doors of opportunity are closing quickly. We could see one of three things happening before the end of October: the status quo continuing and that will mean nothing different will happen and we will see Parliament keep moving until the Christmas break; a successful non-confidence vote with all three opposition parties voting down the Trudeau government with a late November election; or Trudeau will prorogue Parliament until the Spring.
First prorogation. I'm seeing a lot of folks saying Trudeau will prorogue without any evidence, because they're saying, ‘Well, you know, somebody told me.’ I don't really buy that. And if somebody tells you that, who's not close to Justin Trudeau, it can be taken with a grain of salt. Here's why. Trudeau does not want to prorogue Parliament, because he's got so much legislation that would die if he probed parliament. People don't know that if he prorogues it till the spring, which would be the natural thing to do, he's not going to prorogue it till Christmas, and he's not going to prorogue it till February, because they're on vacation anyway, he'll prorogue it till Spring, when we if we come back in the spring, all that legislation has to be reintroduced.
And there's a lot of that legislation Trudeau is banking on, especially Bill C-63, the Online Harms Act that will censor the Internet, censor you and censor me. That's a bill Justin Trudeau really believes in and it’s difficult to see him letting that one go. However, he's in trouble with his own caucus right now, and so the only way out for Justin Trudeau might be to put a pause on Parliament; it's like watching a DVD and hitting pause. He doesn't want to see the ending right now so he hits the pause button and suspends time and maybe things will get better by the Spring for him.
The options available for Justin Trudeau right now are very limited and the doors of opportunity are closing quickly.
But it's interesting, there's no mechanism in the liberal party to go to a leadership review or a leadership vote just because the caucus says so. So even if he has like, 100 MPs, or he has a clear majority, or even if every last Liberal MP says it's time to go, Justin Trudeau doesn't have to listen to that and have a leadership review. He can ignore that. So he's safe, he's on safe footing. It's just a question of what he really thinks he wants to do. And the dynamics right now are just so incredible, because the Bloc Quebecois is clearly deserting this government. It's not going to vote with them. The next time it's really up to Jagmeet Singh. If Singh decides that he might be the Official opposition — he knows he's not going to be the government, he's talking about being the next government, but he knows that's BS, but he could be the next Official Opposition leader like NDP leader Jack Layton was well under Stephen Harper — he could really rip up his deal with Trudeau. It's very possible, and that might be good enough to save Singh's skin, because the knives are out for him in his own party; he's been seen as an ineffective leader who has been in bed with Trudeau and who has completely sold out the NDP. So he's trying to save his own political skin.
But what is Trudeau trying to save right now and what is he thinking as Parliament is on another week-long break. He’s been away for a week, trying to avoid all of this and discovering when he comes back, the knives are out for him in the Liberal caucus. Now, how is he going to look at that? Does that mean prorogation by Oct. 21? Does that mean he's going to fight for his political life? I'm not seeing real evidence that he's serious about proroguing, but that can change. I have seen decisions made about proroguing Parliament made over lunchtime, almost literally that that's how quickly political decisions can be made and Trudeau is not going to have any problem getting the support of the governor general. So we'll see what happens. I'm not going to say, ‘Yes, he's going to prorogue,’ because I'm not seeing enough evidence from people who are close enough to the Prime Minister — like Chrystia Freeland — who are adamant that he will prorogue. Freeland is sure he won’t and she's very close to Trudeau.
Prorogation is a difficult concept for Trudeau and it’s problematic for everyone. It's a very strange phenomenon for any democracy. You couldn't do this to the US Congress, for instance. The mechanism isn't there. You couldn't shut down the Congress for four or five months, but that's literally what would happen to Parliament. Obviously, the cabinet administrators would still be making decisions, and the bureaucracy was unaffected, but you would not see the House of Commons meeting anymore, and it would shut down the business of government and that is a peculiar function to have in a democracy. It would not shut down the Canadian government. It would shut down the democratic representation that we have in the House of Commons and of course, all the current legislation that is before it would die with it.
If Jagmeet Singh decides that he might be the Official opposition — he knows he's not going to be the government, he's talking about being the next government, but he knows that's BS, but he could be the next Official Opposition leader like NDP leader Jack Layton was well under Stephen Harper — he could really rip up his deal with Trudeau.
That's the most controversial thing for Justin Trudeau. That's the only thing nagging him right now: ‘Do I prorogue, or don't I prorogue?’ It's about, ‘Can I get this legislation passed in six months? If I come back in, say, March or April?’ That would give him six months until the next planned election. But who's to say he's not going to come back to a non-confidence vote immediately? That's very possible, and it all if the polls remain the same, with the Conservatives 20 points ahead of the Liberals, and the NDP are beginning to inch ahead of the Liberals in some polls and if that should hold until next March or April when the House would presumably return, Trudeau is coming back to a non-confidence vote, not coming back to six more months of being prime minister. So, this is one of the most slippery positions any Prime Minister has ever been in, because Justin Trudeau is getting it from all directions. He's scandal laden. He's got legislation on the board that would die, that he doesn't want to die. This is serious stuff for him. He's got a caucus revolt that's getting bigger, and he's got an opposition that is decreasingly united, and it's a recipe for disaster. For Justin Trudeau, he's gotten out of the situations similar to this in the past, but never a situation exactly like this. This is very bad political tea leaves for Justin Trudeau.
The united non-confidence vote and the fall of this Trudeau government would be prompted by a lot of things, but the most salient factor right now would be the Green Slush Fund scandal, the Sustainable Development Technology Canada fund that is beyond insane because it was just so unaccountable and vulnerable to abuse. I left this scandal on the back burner for too long. The current Trudeau government transformed this agency into a haven for liberal donors and friends of the Liberal Party, friends of the Liberal government, to get contracts to produce or to propose green energy projects and in so many of the cases, these were inept ideas, or non- existent ideas, or ideas that didn't even have proper proposals.
So it this is one of the most slippery positions any Prime Minister's ever been in, because Justin Trudeau is getting it from all directions. He's scandal laden. He's got legislation on the board that would die, that he doesn't want to die. This is serious stuff for him.
They had no plan, and they were getting money for just proposing something that sounded green, that sounded like it was an environmentally good idea, and there was no accountability, no responsibility, for the money being given up, and it was christened the Green Slush Fund at that point by the by the Conservatives on the Ethics Committee who were looking at this agency and saying, ‘How Is it possible all of this money is being given out without any accountability, projects that are just something that isn't even on paper. These are ideas that might never come to fruition.’ A lot of them can never come to fruition because they're nonsensical ideas. This is clearly about paying off supporters of the Liberal Party, the big-time donors, as the Liberals have done in the past. This is a horrible scandal, because it's an abuse of taxpayer dollars compounded by the bald-faced lies of denial coming from the Liberal government about this, that there's nothing wrong here. Don't look at the elephant in the room.
This is indicative of a government that's lost its moral compass entirely, and when the Conservatives and the NDP and the Bloc voted for all of the documents relating to this project, all the unredacted documents be sent to the RCMP for their information and potentially for prosecution, Speaker Greg Fergus agreed — Fergus who, in the past, has been extremely reluctant to do any favors for the official opposition. He has shut down government business effectively so the House can consider the depths of Liberal corruption that have pervaded its proceedings. So I think the lesson here is, if Greg Fergus finds a problem, if the Speaker of the House finds a problem here, there's a problem, because he's worried about his political future, and he's obviously concerned that if he doesn't do the right thing this time, it's going to have legacy problems for him. This is a huge scandal, that it might be the breakthrough in terms of bringing this government down on corruption. They have a load of corruption in the past that they have seemingly walked away from. Trudeau has been Teflon for a lot of these scandals. But this is the scandal that could unite the opposition behind a non-confidence motion to bring this government down.
Trudeau is not just refusing to comment on this scandal or on the fact that the House of Commons is standing still. He was intentionally trying to avoid commenting or even being in Canada while the House of Commons is essentially on pause; he doesn't want to deal with this scandal at all. Trudeau hasn't commented on the impasse in the House of Commons or whether he would prorogue. It's quite ridiculous, because every time anyone asks him about his political future or the future of his government, he says, ‘Don't ask me about politics. I'm not about politics.’ This is a stunning revelation. He's been about politics his entire adult life but now he says he’s not about politics. Incredibly Trudeau says, ‘I'm here about working for the Canadian people, and I'm rolling up my sleeves to work hard for Canadians.’ And that's his response now because he doesn't want to address this. He's eventually going to have to appear in and he'll probably be back for Tuesday or Wednesday, and he'll distract and he'll try to pretend there's no real problem here, but it's going to be increasingly difficult for him to do that.
He’s also dealing with a caucus revolt that is has grown during his brief absence. always starts with the back benchers, and because the cabinet has to be very careful about showing lack of solidarity with the Prime Minister, I wouldn't doubt there are some cabinet ministers who want Trudeau out, and I think potentially you might get three or four of them signing this petition, as it is, the CBC is calling it a letter, but this is really like a petition for Liberal MPs to sign and apparently it's gone to two pages now.
So are we going to see some cabinet ministers sign too? It comes down to this: whether or not an MPs are in cabinet or in the backbench they’re obsessed with getting reelected. It comes down to that basic thing because the first thing politicians think about after getting elected is how they plan to get reelected the next time. That's what they're focused on and that's what a Liberal MP is focused on. How do I get reelected? Am I going to get reelected if Justin Trudeau is at the helm? They're not worried anymore about whether they are going to stay in cabinet They're worried about whether they are going to stay in the House of Commons. Because this is a pretty good job and a lush deal that dispenses a salary and benefits a lot of these people would not have access to in the real world. It's totally political, and if, if it means taking the knives out against Justin Trudeau. they're prepared to do that because it's their future, not Justin's future. He's been there for nine years.
Trudeau hasn't commented on the impasse in the House of Commons or whether he would prorogue. It's quite ridiculous, because every time anyone asks him about his political future or the future of his government, he says, ‘Don't ask me about politics. I'm not about politics.’ This is a stunning revelation. He's been about politics his entire adult life
That doesn’t mean a caucus revolt will succeed. Trudeau will ignore it as much as possible and try to change the channel somehow. One of two things will most likely happen in the next two weeks. Trudeau will either prorogue or will have a non- confidence vote and a November election. The House is so volatile right now that that could happen. There is probably not enough time for this caucus revolt to come to fruition.
The dynamics are there for a November election, because of all the reasons I've listed, because he's losing caucus control. He's losing the support of the other opposition parties that have always saved his skin in the past. He's it's either prorogue or have an election. Justin Trudeau would ultimately rather have an election and stay on, rather than prorogue and come back and face a non-confidence in the spring. Ultimately this is about Trudeau’s unalloyed narcissism and his profound belief that not only does the Liberal Party need him, but the country does too. And he believes in that ego-driven heart of this that he can beat this career politician Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. Trudeau believes voters love him more.
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So the Green Slush Fund might be the hill upon which Trudeau the Younger's career dies. That seems kind of apropos, actually. The sooner Justin! and his ilk are purged from Parliament, the better.
I wish I had confidence Pierre would reduce the size and scope of government but he won't even commit to reducing the deluge of migrants.
Speaking of not seeing the elephant in the room--What happened to the latest; biggest scandal? Parliament is basically idle; until Trudeau produces the unredacted documents. The push seems to have died. Now he's busy stirring up the pot regarding the Indian government, and heaping more scorn upon us from the USA. That this poseur "P.M" remains in power really shows the weaknesses in our version of the British parliamentary system. He should have been ousted long ago. And yet; there he remains.....King of the Mountain. It's easier getting sticky chewing gum out of a broadloom carpet. (Without using scissors.)